Currency swap

A currency swap is a foreign exchange agreement between two parties to exchange a given amount of one currency for another and, after a specified period of time, to give back the original amounts swapped.

Currency swaps can be negotiated for a variety of maturities up to at least 10 years. Unlike a back-to-back loan, a currency swap is not considered to be a loan by United States accounting laws and thus it is not reflected on a company's balance sheet. A swap is considered to be a foreign exchange transaction (short leg) plus an obligation to close the swap (far leg) being a forward contract.

Currency swaps are often combined with interest rate swaps. For example, one company would seek to swap a cash flow for their fixed rate debt denominated in US dollars for a floating-rate debt denominated in Euro. This is especially common in Europe where companies "shop" for the cheapest debt regardless of its denomination and then seek to exchange it for the debt in desired currency.

Overnight index swap

Overnight index swap is an interest rate swap involving the overnight rate being exchanged for some fixed interest rate. Generally short-term, the interest of the overnight rate portion of the swap is compounded and paid at maturity.

An overnight indexed swap (OIS) is a fixed/floating interest rate swap with the floating leg tied to a published index of a daily overnight rate reference. The term ranges from one week to two years (sometimes more). The two parties agree to exchange at maturity, on the agreed notional amount, the difference between interest accrued at the agreed fixed rate and interest accrued through geometric averaging of the floating index rate.

This means that the floating rate calculation replicates the accrual on an amount rolled “P plus I” at the index rate every business day over the term of the swap. If cash can be borrowed by the swap receiver on the same maturity as the swap and at the same rate and lent back every day in the market at the index rate, the cash payoff at maturity will exactly match the swap payout: the OIS acts as a perfect hedge for a cash instrument. Since indices are generally constructed on the basis of the average of actual transactions, the index is generally achievable by borrowers and lenders. Economically, receiving the fixed rate in an OIS is like lending cash. Paying the fixed rate in an OIS is like borrowing cash. Settlement occurs net on the earliest practical date. There is no exchange of principal.

Use

The OIS swap can be used to manage interest rate risk for flexible periods, without taking liquidity risk and with minimum credit risk (hence there is efficient usage of capital). This will lead to deeper and more efficient markets.

Since their introduction in the 1990s, Overnight Indexed Swaps have become a widely-used, highly credit-efficient and liquid derivative in all major currencies. They are used to hedge against, or speculate on, moves in overnight interest rates (both ‘micro’ moves — daily volatility — and, more importantly, ‘macro’ moves driven by central banks, who influence overnight rates directly.


Interest Rate Risk Management
OIS allow the interest rate risk profile of a portfolio to be changed as if by the addition of a cash asset or borrowing but with no use of cash and with minimal use of credit. These features allow much better risk management and separate funding maturity from interest rate duration.

Forex swap

Forex swap is an over the counter short term interest rate derivative instrument. A Forex swap consists of a spot foreign exchange transaction entered into at exactly the same time and for the same quantity as a forward foreign exchange transaction. The forward portion is the reverse of the spot transaction, where the spot purchase is offset by a forward selling. In this way, temporary surplus funds in one currency are for a while swapped into another currency for better use of liquidity. Protects against adverse movements in the forex rate, but favourable moves are renounced.

The fixed rate in this transaction is the forward rate that is locked in by the forward contract. The floating rate will be the overnight rate that is realized on a daily basis by the spot transaction. Typically, the floating side of these trades are indexed to the Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rate. This rate is an average of the rates that are paid based on a survey.

It should not be confused with a currency swap, which is a much rarer, long term transaction, governed by a slightly different set of rules.

In emerging money markets, Forex swaps are usually the first derivative instrument to be traded, ahead of Forward rate agreements.

TRADING RESULTS at GBPJPY

When we backtested at the highest possible level, using GBPJPY (British Pounds/Japanese Yen) on the Daily Chart, at the highest modelling quality available:

10k over the last year became $35,236 (see below)



10k over the last 3 years became $223,643!
*This equates at around 10% a month, the growth of which is compounded.

THIS DOES NOT EVEN INCLUDE THE SWAP!!!! Adding the swap in you can add approximately 25% of the results - with compounding this will create a multiplier effect so results will be considerably higher than stated. The compounding effect of additional equity and larger lots size will in actuality lead to results several times larger than those here stated. So, 10k over 7 years will net you a much more than $5.2 million once the swap is calculated in!

The most important point to consider is that our EA performs very well, without taking the risks that many other EA's are designed to take. Wouldn't you rather have a program that works on all market trends, rather than potentially failing when you least expect it? Another rather important point is that I use and have been using my EA for my own trades and have done quite well!

The system is primarily designed to run on GBPJPY, as it has the highest swap level of all the majors. Similiar results are also obtainable on (and not limited to) GBPCHF. You can run this EA on as many pairs and timeframes as you like, but high chart timeframes (Daily) are always used to determine the trend. To become confident with our software, you first need to do some testing on your end, until you are comfortable enough to begin real trades. If you do not have MetaTrader4 (MT4) platform installed, you will need to download it from one of the brokers that support MT4 (we provide you with a list).

Interest rate swap

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In the field of derivatives, a popular form of swap is the interest rate swap, in which one party exchanges a stream of interest for another party's stream. These were originally created to allow multi-national companies to evade exchange controls. Interest rate swaps are normally 'fixed against floating', but can also be 'floating against floating' rate. A single-currency 'fixed against fixed' rate swap would be theoretically possible, but since the entire cash-flow stream can be predicted at the outset there would be no reason to maintain a swap contract as the two parties could just settle for the difference between the present values of the two fixed streams. Because one party would be definitely at a disadvantage in such an exchange, that party would decide not to enter into the deal. Hence, there are no single-currency 'fixed versus fixed' swaps in existence. If there is an exchange of interest rate obligation, then it is termed a liability swap. If there is an exchange of interest income, then it is an asset swap.

Interest rate swaps are often used by companies to alter their exposure to interest-rate fluctuations, by swapping fixed-rate obligations for floating rate obligations, or vice versa. By swapping interest rates, a company is able to alter their interest rate exposures and bring them in line with management's appetite for interest rate risk.

Swaps Basic Forms

A Swap is an agreement to exchange a sequence of cash flows over a period of time in the future in same or different currencies. Mainly used for hedging various interest rate exposures, they are very popular and highly liquid instruments. Although there are hundreds of types of swaps, some of the very basic swap types are

Fixed - Float (Same currency) Party P pays/receives fixed interest in currency A to receive/pay floating rate in currency A indexed to X on a notional N for a tenor T years. For example, you pay fixed 5.32% monthly to receive USD 1M Libor monthly on a notional USD 1 mil for 3 years. Fixed-Float swaps in same currency are used to convert a fixed/floating rate asset/liability to a floating/fixed rate asset/liability. For example, if a company has a fixed rate USD 10 mio loan at 5.3% paid monthly and a floating rate investment of USD 10 mio that returns USD 1M Libor +25 bps monthly, and wants to lockin the profit as they expect the USD 1M Libor to go down, then they may enter into a Fixed-Floating swap where the company pays floating USD 1M Libor+25 bps and receives 5.5% fixed rate, locking in 20bps profit.


Fixed - Float (Different currency) Party P pays/receives fixed interest in currency A to receive/pay floating rate in currency B indexed to X on a notional N at an initial exchange rate of FX for a tenor T years. For example, you pay fixed 5.32% on the USD notional 10 mio quarterly to receive JPY 3M Tibor monthly on a JPY notional 1.2 bio (at an initial exchange rate of USDJPY 120) for 3 years. For Nondeliverable swaps, USD equivalent of JPY interest will be paid/received (as per the Fx rate on the FX fixing date for the interest payment day). Note in this case no initial Exchange of notional takes place unless the Fx fixing date and the swap start date fall in the future. Fixed-Float swaps in different currency are used to convert a fixed/floating rate asset/liability in one currency to a floating/fixed rate asset/liability in a different currency. For example, if a company has a fixed rate USD 10 mio loan at 5.3% paid monthly and a floating rate investment of JPY 1.2 bio that returns JPY 1M Libor +50 bps monthly, and wants to lock in the profit in USD as they expect the JPY 1M Libor to go down or USDJPY to go up(JPY depreciate against USD), then they may enter into a Fixed-Floating swap in different currency where the company pays floating JPY 1M Libor+50 bps and receives 5.6% fixed rate, locking in 30bps profit against the interest rate and the fx exposure.


Float - Float (Same Currency, different index) Party P pays/receives floating interest in currency A Indexed to X to receive/pay floating rate in currency B indexed to Y on a notional N for a tenor T years. For example, you pay JPY 1M Libor monthly to receive JPY 1M Tibor monthly on a notional JPY 1 bio for 3 years.

In this case, company wants to lockin the cost from the spread widening or narrowing. For example, if a company has a floating rate loan at JPY 1M Libor and the company has an investment that returns JPY 1M Tibor+30 bps and currently the JPY 1M Tibor = JPY 1M Libor +10bps. At the moment, this company has a net profir of 40 bps. If the company thinks JPY 1M tibor is going to come down or JPY 1M Libor is going to increase in the future and wants to insulate from this risk, they can enter into a Float float swap in same currency where they pay JPY TIBOR +10 bps and receive JPY LIBOR+35 bps. with this, they have effectively locked in a 35 bps profit instead of running with a current 40 bps gain and index risk. The 5bps difference comes from the swap cost which includes the market expectations of the future rates in these two indices and the bid/offer spread which is the swap commission for the swap dealer.


Float - Float (Different Currency) Party P pays/receives floating interest in currency A Indexed to X to receive/pay floating rate in currency A indexed to Y on a notional N at an initial exchange rate of FX for a tenor T years. For example, you pay floating USD 1M Libor on the USD notional 10 mio quarterly to receive JPY 3M Tibor monthly on a JPY notional 1.2 bio (at an initial exchange rate of USDJPY 120) for 4 years.

To explain the use of this type of swap, consider a US company operating in Japan. To fund their Japanese growth, they need JPY 10 bio. the easiest option for the company is to issue debt in Japan. As the company might be new in the Japanese market with out a well known reputation among the Japanese investors, this can be an expensive option. Added on top of this, the company might not have appropriate Debt Issuance Program in Japan and they might lack sophesticated treasury operation in Japan. To overcone the above problems, it can issue USD debt and convert to JPY in the FX market. Although this option solves the first problem, it introduces two new risks to the company:

1. FX risk. If this if this USDJPY spot goes up at the maturity of the debt, then when the company converts the JPY to USD to pay back its matured debt, it receives less USD and suffers a loss.

2. USD and JPY interest rate risk. If the JPY rates comes down, the return on the investment in Japan might go down and this introduces a interest rate risk component.

The first exposure in the above can be hedged using long dated FX forward contracts but this introduces a new risk where the implied rate from the FX Spot and the FX Forward is a fixed rate but the JPY investment returns a floating rate. Although there are several alternatives to hedge both the exposures effectively without introducing new risks, the easiest and the most cost effective alternative would be to use a Float-Float swap in different currencies. In this, the company raises USD by issuing USD Debt and swaps it to JPY. It receives USD floating rate(so matching the interest payments on the USD Debt) and pays JPY floating rate matching the returns on the JPY investment.


Fixed - Fixed (Different Currency) Party P pays/receives fixed interest in currency A to receive/pay fixed rate in currency B for a term of T years. For example, you pay JPY 1.6% on a JPy notional of 1.2 bio and receive USD 5.36% on the USD equivalent notional of 10 mio at an initial exchange rate of USDJPY 120.

Usage is similar to above but you receive USD fixed rate and pay JPY Fixed rate.

Consider the following illustration in which Party A agrees to pay Party B periodic interest rate payments of LIBOR + 50 bps (0.50 %) in exchange for periodic interest rate payments of 3.00 %. Note that there is no exchange of the principal amounts and that the interest rates are on a "notional" (i.e. imaginary) principal amount. Also note that the interest payments are settled in net (e.g. if LIBOR + 50 bps is 1.20 % then Party A receives 1.80 % and Party B pays 1.80 %). The fixed rate (3.00 % in this example) is referred to as the swap rate.

Trading An interest-rate swap is one of the more common forms of over-the-counter derivatives. It is the most widely used derivative in terms of its outstanding notional amount, but it's not standardized enough and doesn't have the properties to easily change hands in a way that will let it be traded through a futures exchange like an option or a futures contract.

Valuation and Pricing

The present value of a plain vanilla (i.e. fixed rate for floating rate) swap can easily be computed using standard methods of determining the present value of the components. The swap requires from one party a series of payments based on variable rates, which are determined at the agreed dates of each payment. At the time the swap is entered into, only the actual payment rates of the fixed leg are known in the future, but forward rates (derived from the yield curve) are used as an approximation. Each variable rate payment is calculated based on the forward rate for each respective payment date. Using these interest rates leads to a series of cash flows. Each cash flow is discounted by the zero-coupon rate for the date of the payment; this is also sourced from the yield curve data available from the market. Zero-coupon rates are used because these rates are for bonds which pay only one cash flow. The interest rate swap is therefore treated like a series of zero-coupon bonds.

This calculation leads to a PV. The fixed rate offered in the swap is the rate which values the fixed rates payments at the same PV as the variable rate payments using today's forward rates. Therefore, at the time the contract is entered into, there is no advantage to either party, and therefore the swap requires no upfront payment. During the life of the swap, the same valuation technique is used, but since, over time, the forward rates change, the PV of the variable-rate part of the swap will deviate from the unchangeable fixed-rate side of the swap. Therefore, the swap will be an asset to one party and a liability to the other. The way these changes in value are reported is the subject of IAS 39 for jurisdictions following IFRS, and FAS 133 for U.S. GAAP.

Credit Risk

Credit Risk on the swap comes into play if the swap is in the money or not. If one of the parties is in the money, then that party faces credit risk of possible default by another party. This is true for all swaps where there is no exchange of principal.

Marking to Market

The current valuation of securities in a portfolio. Debt Security Traders mostly use this in order to visualize their inventory at a certain time.

Swaps are also traded at a fixed rate as apposed to par. so when the par rate is 3% if the payer wants to pay 3.5% i.e 50Bps over a cash payment is made to compensate for this.

Market Size

The Bank for International Settlements reports that interest rate swaps are the largest component of the global OTC derivative market. The notional amount outstanding as of December 2006 in OTC interest rate swaps was $229.8 trillion, up $60.7 trillion (35.9%) from December 2005. These contracts account for 55.4% of the entire $415 trillion OTC derivative market.

Users

Fannie Mae

Fannie Mae uses interest rate derivatives to, for example, "hedge" its cash flow. The products it uses are pay-fixed swaps, receive-fixed swaps, basis swaps, interest rate cap and swaptions, and forward starting swaps. Its "cash flow hedges" had a notional value of $872 billion at December 31, 2003, while its "fair value hedges" stood at $169 billion (SEC Filings) (2003 10-K page 79). Its "net value" on "a net present value basis, to settle at current market rates all outstanding derivative contracts" was (7,712) million and 8,139 million, which makes a total of 6,633 million when a "purchased options time value" of 8,139 million is added.

What Fannie Mae doesn't want is for example a wide "duration gap" for a long period. If rates turn the opposite way on a duration gap the cash flow from assets and liabilities may not match, resulting in inability to pay the bills on liabilities. It reports the duration gap regularly in its (8-K Regulation FD Disclosure), see earlier 10-K's for charts and more information (Investor Relations: Annual Reports & Proxy Statements). (Dec 1999 - Dec 2002 duration gap) , (2003 gap).

Arbitrage Opportunities

Interest Rate Swaps are very popular due to the arbitrage opportunities they provide. Due to varying levels of creditworthiness in companies, there is often a positive Quality Spread Differential which allows both parties to benefit from an Interest Rate Swap.

The interest rate swap market is closely linked to the Eurodollar futures market which trades at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

some tips here

1. Read both the books by Mark Douglas which cover trading psychology BEFORE you read or do anything else. If you don’t, I’ll say I told you so when you hit a failure barrier and don’t know why.

2. Stop loss policy - you MUST have one and practice, more practice and even more practice at sticking to it. It will not be easy but it is an essential discipline to profitable trading.

3. Trading plan / system. Again, you MUST have one! Then you must practice sticking to it. Do not try and second guess or trade aganst your indicators - wait until they give you a concise signal before acting on it.

4. TRADE WITH THE TREND. DO NOT trade against the hourly trend of the market unless you are VERY certain the market has turned. Check this by watching a long term moving average (say 80 SMA on 15 minute chart)

5. Learn to sit on your hands and not trade! It’s better to wait for good quality trades than take a mediocre one and loose money. A day of no trades is better than a day with one loosing one. If you don’t like the market, just walk away. It will always be there later.

6. Don’t set yourself false targets and expectations. Trading is not an EXACT science and if you do you will only become frustrated by your failure to meet them. Take what the market gives and be satisfied. Greed will kill you as a trader, both mentally and monetarily. .

7. The market is rarely your friend in a trade that goes against you. Cut your losses quickly and accept them as an inherent part of trading. You will not be able to trade without some loosing positions. Manage them well!

8. Try hard not to get out of profitable trades too early. Try operating a trailing stoploss of say 15 to 20 pips behind the trade (on 5minute timeframe) and maximise your good trades by letting them run. Be patient!

9. Ensure you fully understand how to generate and use pivot points and camarilla points on your trading platform. These are crucial decision points for daily trading and you will struggle without them.

10. DO NOT overtrade your account. Read up on money management in trading to make sure you fully understand why this is important and develop a strategy which fits with your personal trading capital. NEVER risk wiping out your account because believe me, it can happen. I’ve done it twice myself!

11. Learn about FIBONACCI levels and how to apply them to your charts.

12. Keep your trading system simple. Do not have too much information on your trading screen. It is unnecessary and will only cause you to be confused and delay you making your trading decisions.

13. Always think in terms of probabilities. Trading is all about thinking in probabilities NOT certainties. You can make all the “right” decisions and the trade still goes against you. This does not make it a “wrong” trade, just one of the many trades you will take which, through probability, are on the “loosing” side of your trading plan. Don’t expect not to have negative trades - they are a necessary part of the plan and cannot be avoided.

14. Ensure that the candle is fully formed on the timeframe you are trading BEFORE you enter your trade. Trade what you see, not what you would like to see.

Core CPI

United States Consumer Price Index

The U.S. Consumer Price Index is a time series measure of the price level of consumer goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which started the statistic in 1919, publishes the CPI on a monthly basis. The CPI is calculated by observing price changes among a wide array of products in urban areas and weighing these price changes by the share of income consumers spend purchasing them. The resulting statistic, measured as of the end of the month for which it is published, serves as one of the most popular measures of United States inflation; however, the CPI focuses on approximating a cost-of-living index not a general price index.

The CPI can be used to track changes in prices of all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban households, i.e., of the consumer basket. User fees (such as water and sewer service) and sales and excise taxes paid by the consumer are also included. Income taxes and investment items (like stocks, bonds, life insurance, and homes) are not included. The index measures inflation faced by consumers who live in urban areas designated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Scope of the CPI

BLS calculates the CPI for two population groups, one consisting only of wage earners and clerical workers and the other consisting of all urban consumers. In addition, a Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and a Chained CPI are also widely used measures of consumer inflation.

CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)

The urban wage earner and clerical worker population consists of consumer units with clerical workers, sales workers, craft workers, operative, service workers, or laborers. More than one half of the consumer unit's income has to be earned from the above occupations, and at least one of the members must be employed for 37 weeks or more in an eligible occupation.The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is a continuation of the historical index that was introduced after World War I for use in wage negotiation. As new uses were developed for the CPI, the need for a broader and more representative index became apparent.

CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

The all-urban consumer population consisists of all urban households in Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA's) and in urban places of 2,500 inhabitants or more. Nonfarm consumers living in rural areas within MSA's are included, but the index excludes rural consumers and the military and institutional population. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) introduced in 1978 is representative of the buying habits of approximately 80 percent of the non-insititutional population of the United States, compared with 32 percent represented in the CPI-W. The methodology for producing the index is the same for both populations.

Core CPI

The core CPI index excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile and non-systemic. More specifically, food and energy prices are widely thought to be subject to large changes that often fail to persist and do not represent relative price changes. In many instances, large movements in food and energy prices arise because of supply disruptions such as drought or OPEC-led cutbacks in production.

Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)

This index applies to the same target population as the CPI-U. The same raw data are used, but a different formula is employed to calculate average prices. The chained CPI was developed to overcome a shortcoming of the CPI-U series, which does not account for the changes that people make in the composition of goods that they purchase over time, often in response to price changes. The alternative method of the C-CPI-U is intended to capture consumers' behavior as they respond to relative price changes.

History of the CPI

The Consumer Price Index was initiated during World War I, when rapid increases in prices, particularly in shipbuilding centers, made an index essential for calculating cost-of-living adjustments in wages. To provide appropriate weighting patterns for the index, so that it would reflect the relative importance of goods and services purchased in 92 industrial centers in 1917-1919. Periodic collection of prices was started, and, in 1919, the Bureau of Labor Statistics began publication of separate indexes for 32 cities. Regular publication of a national index, the U.S. city average began in 1921, and indexes were estimated back to 1913 using records of food prices.

Because people's buying habits had changed substantially, a new study was made covering expenditures in the years 1934-1936, which provided the basis for a comprehensively revised index introduced in 1940. During World War II, when many commodities were scarce and goods were rationed, the index weights were adjusted temporarily to reflect these shortages. In 1951, the BLS again made interim adjustments, based on surveys of consumer expenditures in seven cities between 1947 and 1949, to reflect the most important effects of immediate postwar changes in buying patterns. The index was again revised in 1953 and 1964.

In 1978, the index was revised to reflect the spending patterns based upon the surveys of consumer expenditures conducted in 1972-1974. A new and expanded 85-area sample was selected based on the 1970 Census of Population. The Point-of-Purchase Survey (POPS) was also introduced. POPS eliminated reliance on outdated secondary sources for screening samples of establishments or outlets where prices are collected. A second, more broadly based CPI for All Urban Consumers, the CPI-U was also introduced. The CPI-U took into account the buying patterns of professional and salaried workers, part-time workers, the self-employed, the unemployed, and retired people, in addition to wage earners and clerical workers.)

Calculating the CPI

The calculation of the CPI involves uses a hybrid methodology that includes both Laspeyres, a fixed-quantity price index, and a geometric mean formula, which approximates for changes in consumption based on substitution. Two sets of indices are used in three stages to produce the overall CPI. The first stage involves elementary indices based the price levels of very similar goods in the same area. These indices are used to produce a set of aggregate indices in the second stage. In the final stage, the aggregate indices are used to calculate the CPI. While the aggregate indices are based on the Laspeyres formula, all but a few of the elementary indices are based on geometric means formulas.

Before 1999, CPI used only Laspeyres indices, measures of the price changes in a fixed market basket of consumption goods and services of constant quantity and quality bought on average by urban consumers, either for all urban consumers (CPI-U) or for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W). A Laspeyres index is a ratio of the costs of purchasing a set of items of constant quality and constant quantity in two different time periods.

The CPI is calculated using a Laspeyres index computed as:

\Delta P_L = \frac{\sum_{i} p_{i1} q_{i0}}{\sum_{i} p_{i0} q_{i0}},

where ΔPL is the change in price level, pi0 and qi0 refer, respectively, to the price and quantity of each good i in the first period, and pi1 refers to the price of each good i in the second period.

The Laspeyres index systematically overstates inflation because it does not take into account changes in the quantities consumed that may occur as a response to price changes. The Laspeyres formula works under the assumption that consumers always buy the same amount of each good in the market basket, no matter what the price. In contrast, the geometric means price index formula assumes that consumers will always spend the same amount of money on a good and shift the quantity they buy of that good based on the price.

Weights of the CPI

The weight of an item in the CPI is derived from the expenditure on that item as estimated by the Consumer Expenditure Survey. This survey provides data on the average expenditure on selected items, such as white bread, gasoline and so on, that were purchased by the index population during the survey period. In a fixed-weight index such as the CPI, the implicit quantity of any item used in calculating the index remains the same from month to month.

A related concept is the relative importance of an item. The relative importance shows the share of total expenditure that would occur if quantities consumed were unaffected by changes in relative prices and actually remained constant. Although the implicit quantity weights remain fixed, the relative importance changes over time, reflecting average price changes. Items registering a greater than average price increase (or smaller decrease) become relatively more important.

Uses of the CPI

* As an economic indicator. As the most widely used measure of inflation, the CPI is an indicator of the effectiveness of government fiscal and monetary policy. Especially for inflation targeting monetary policy by the Federal Reserve; however, the Federal Reserve System has recently begun favoring the Personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) over the CPI as a measure of inflation. Business executives, labor leaders, and other private citizens also use the CPI as a guide in making economic decisions.
* As a deflator of other economic series. The CPI and its components are used to adjust other economic series for price change and to translate these series into inflation-free dollars.
* As a means for indexation (i.e. adjusting income payments). Over 2 million workers are covered by collective bargaining agreements which tie wages to the CPI. In the United States, the index affects the income of almost 80 million people as a result of statutory action: 47.8 million Social Security beneficiaries, about 4.1 million military and Federal Civil Service retirees and survivors, and about 22.4 million food stamp recipients. Changes in the CPI also affect the cost of lunches for the 26.7 million children who eat lunch at school. Some private firms and individuals use the CPI to keep rents, royalties, alimony payments and child support payments in line with changing prices. Since 1985, the CPI has been used to adjust the Federal income tax structure to prevent inflation-induced increases in taxes.

Core PPI

U.S. Producer Price Index

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output. The PPI was known as the Wholesale Price Index, or WPI, up to 1978. The PPI is one of the oldest continuous systems of statistical data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as well as one of the oldest economic time series compiled by the Federal Government.[1] The origins of the index can be found in an 1891 U.S. Senate resolution authorizing the Senate Committee on Finance to investigate the effects of the tariff laws “upon the imports and exports, the growth, development, production, and prices of agricultural and manufactured articles at home and abroad.

Scope of the Producer Price Index

Most of the data is collected through a systematic sampling of producers in manufacturing, mining, and service industries, and is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Virtually every type of mining and manufacturing industry is currently sampled in the PPI; and a majority of service industries are sampled, with more being constantly added.

Data Source

Respondent participation has been conducted on a voluntary basis from its inception. The cooperation of survey respondents in providing data is absolutely essential if the Bureau is to succeed in performing its responsibilities as mandated by Congress. The Bureau, accordingly, is deeply committed to preserving the confidentiality of all data submitted. The data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is strictly confidential. The Confidential Information Protection and Statistical Efficiency Act of 2002 (Title 5 of Public Law 107-347) protects the confidentiality of the data provided by the respondents.

Classification

The Producer Price Index family of indexes consists of several major classification systems, each with its own structure, history, and uses. However, indexes in all classification systems now draw from the same pool of price information provided to the Bureau by cooperating company reporters. The three most important classification structures are industry, commodity, and stage of processing (SOP).

Industry

The PPI for an industry measures the average change in prices received for an industry’s output sold to another industry. For more than 20 years the PPI used the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system to collect and publish data. This system received criticism for its inability to adapt to changes in the United States economy. Consequently, the BLS began in January 2004 to publish the PPI data in accordance with the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). This system was developed in cooperation with Canada and Mexico, and categorizes producers into industries based on the activity in which they are primarily engaged.

Commodity

The PPI commodity index organizes products by similarity of end use or material composition. This system is unique to the PPI and does not match any other standard coding structure, such as the SIC or the U.N. Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). Historical continuity of index series, the needs of index users, and a variety of ad hoc factors were important in developing the PPI commodity classification.

Stage of Processing

The PPI commodity index regroup commodities according to the class of buyer and the amount of physical processing or assembling the products have undergone. Finished goods are defined as commodities that are ready for sale to the final-demand user—either an individual consumer or a business firm. The category of intermediate materials, supplies, and components consists partly of already processed commodities that still require further processing. Crude materials for further processing are defined as unprocessed commodities not sold directly to consumers

Calculating Index Changes

Movements of price indexes from one month to another usually should be expressed as percent changes, rather than as changes in index points, because the latter are affected by the level of the index in relation to its base period, while the former are not. Each index measures price changes from a reference period defined to equal 100.0. The current standard base period for most commodity-oriented PPI series is 1982, but many indexes that began after 1982 are based on the month of their introduction.

An increase of 20 percent from the base period in the Finished Goods Price Index, for example, is shown as 120.0, which can be expressed in dollars as follows: “Prices received by domestic producers of a systematic sample of finished goods have risen from $100 in 1982 to $120 today.” Likewise, a current index of 133.3 would indicate that prices received by producers of finished goods today are one-third higher than what they were in 1982.

Core PPI

It is defined as the PPI excluding high volatility items, such as energy.

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Trading successfully
Posted in Uncategorized on June 30th, 2007
Trading successfully

Trading successfully is by no means a simple matter. It requires time, market knowledge and market understanding and a large amount of self restraint. ACM does not manage accounts, nor does it give market advice, that is the job of money managers and introducing brokers. As market professionals, we can however point the novice in the right direction and indicate what are correct trading tactics and considerations and what is total nonsense.

Anyone who says you can consistently make money in foreign exchange markets is being untruthful. Foreign exchange by nature, is a volatile market. The practice of trading it by way of margin increases that volatility exponentially. We are therefore talking about a very ‘fast market’ which is naturally inconsistent. Following that precept, it is logical to say that in order to make a successful trade, a trader has to take into account technical and fundamental data and make an informed decision based on his perception of market sentiment and market expectation. Timing a trade correctly is probably the most important variable in trading successfully but invariably there will be times where a traders’ timing will be off. Don’t expect to generate returns on every trade.

Let’s enumerate what a trader needs to do in order to put the best chances for profitable trades on his side:

Trade with money you can afford to lose:
Trading fx markets is speculative and can result in loss, it is also exciting, exhilarating and can be addictive. The more you are ‘involved with your money’ the harder it is to make a clear-headed decision. Money you have earned is precious, but money you need to survive should never be traded.

Identify the state of the market:
What is the market doing? Is it trending upwards, downwards, is it in a trading range. Is the trend strong or weak, did it begin long ago or does it look like a new trend that’s forming. Getting a clear picture of the market situation is laying the groundwork for a successful trade.

Determine what time frame you’re trading on:
Many traders get in the market without thinking when they would like to get out, after all the goal is to make money. This is true but when trading, one must extrapolate in his mind’s eye the movement that one expects to happen. Within this extrapolation, resides a price evolution during a certain period of time. Attached to this is the idea of exit price. The importance of this is to mentally put your trade in perspective and although it is clearly impossible to know exactly when you will exit the market, it is important to define from the outset if you’ll be ’scalping’ (trying to get a few points off the market) trading intra-day, or going longer term. This will also determine what chart period you’re looking at. If you trade many times a day, there’s no point basing your technical analysis on a daily graph, you’ll probably want to analyse 30 minute or hour graphs. Additionally it is important to know the different time periods when various financial centers enter and exit the market as this creates more or less volatility and liquidity and can influence market movements.

Time your trade:
You can be right about a potential market movement but be too early or too late when you enter the trade. Timing considerations are twofold, an expected market figure like CPI, retail sales or a federal reserve decision can consolidate a movement that’s already underway. Timing your move means knowing what’s expected and taking into account all considerations before trading. Technical analysis can help you identify when and at what price a move may occur. We will look at technical analysis in more detail later.

If in doubt, stay out:
If you’re unsure about a trade and find you’re hesitating, stay on the sidelines.

Trade logical transaction sizes:
Margin trading allows the fx trader a very large amount of leverage, trading at full margin capacity (in ACM’s case 1% or 0.5%) can make for some very large profits or losses on an account. Scaling your trades so that you may re-enter the market or make transactions on other currencies is generally wiser. In short, don’t trade amounts that can potentially wipe you out and don’t put all your eggs in one basket. ACM offers the same rates regardless of transaction sizes so a customer has nothing to lose by starting small.

Gauge market sentiment:
Market sentiment is what most of the market is perceived to be feeling about the market and therefore what it is doing or will do. This is basically about trend. You may have heard the term ‘the trend is your friend’, this basically means that if you’re in the right direction with a strong trend you will make successful trades. This of course is very simplistic, a trend is capable of reversal at any time. Technical and fundamental data can indicate however if the trend has begun long ago and if it is strong or weak.

Market expectation:
Market expectation relates to what most people are expecting as far as upcoming news is concerned. If people are expecting an interest rate to rise and it does, then there usually will not be much of a movement because the information will already have been ‘discounted’ by the market, alternatively if the adverse happens, markets will usually react violently.

Use what other traders use:
In a perfect world, every trader would be looking at a 14 day RSI and making trading decisions based on that. If that was the case, when RSI would go under the 30 level, everyone would buy and by consequence the price would rise. Needless to say, the world is not perfect and not all market participants follow the same technical indicators, draw the same trendlines and identify the same support & resistance levels. The great diversity of opinions and techniques used translates directly into price diversity. Traders however have a tendency to use a limited variety of technical tools. The most common are 9 and 14 day RSI, obvious trendlines and support levels, fibonnacci retracement, MACD and 9, 20 & 40 day exponential moving averages. The closer you get to what most traders are looking at, the more precise your estimations will be. The reason for this is simple arithmetic, larger numbers of buyers than sellers at a certain price will move the market up from that price and vice-versa.